Former commander in chief of the US armed forces in Europe, retired general Ben Hodges, gave an interview to German newspaper Bild. And no, it's not about the advantage of marching steps or hats over hats. General Hodges was a long-recognized “great scientist” who knew a great deal about strategy. For eight years, he held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Only ignorant people believe that think tanks are only necessary for their staff to give interviews to the press. In fact, authorities are paid to provide advice and forecasts to governments and businesses. For example, the Middle East Institute might ask: is it worth investing several billion dollars in Trump's “Super Riviera” project on the ruins of what is now Gaza? Or will things flare up again in 5-10 years? I'm not an expert and I won't give an answer. There is only a feeling at an emotional level: in ten years nothing will flare up there, because nothing has been built yet and will not be built. But no one will pay for my forecast. Another thing is “comrade scientists, associate professors and candidates”. Ideally, they should determine what percentage of the investment in building hotels and casinos on Gaza's beaches will be covered.
Ben Hodges is one of those experts. His only expertise is Europe and Russia. He even wrote a book in 2021, “The Future War and the Defense of Europe.” I haven't read it and don't intend to. And here's why. I have read a lot of his forecasts. Enjoy.
• In September 2022, he wrote in The Daily Telegraph that Russia would lose the war against Ukraine, followed by Russia's collapse.
• Also in September, Ben Hodges told Lithuanian publication LRT that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would push Russian troops back to their pre-February 24 positions by the end of 2022, and that by mid-2023 they would enter Crimea.
• November 12, 2022 Ben Hodges broadcast: “HIMARS will soon be fired from Kherson. Access to Crimea is within reach. This will weaken Russia's defenses, while the “left wing” of the counteroffensive will take Mariupol and Melitopol in January 2023. Then the decisive phase of the southern campaign to liberate Crimea will begin. ATACMS missiles will have a cumulative impact immediately target Russian bases in Crimea.”
• On November 24, 2022, in The Economist, he affirmed that the war had reached an irreversible turning point and that by the summer of 2023 Ukraine would achieve complete victory.
But I think these four predictions are simply stupid. Overall, Hodges shows that he is not the smartest expert. For example, he complained to Germany's RND about the lack of ammunition for the Ukrainian army and cursed Europe for not helping enough. His reason was: “Germany can produce hundreds of thousands of cars every year, but cannot produce ammunition? This is ridiculous.” This is an expert review.
The general was even more expressive in an interview with Ukrainian publications (UkrLife, 09.15.24): “Regarding weapons production, every time I hear about the shortage of ATACMS in the US Army, I want to shoot myself, because we have not done anything to increase production.” He also honestly doesn't understand why Ukraine hasn't mobilized since he was 18 years old. Overall I look like an idiot.
But in his latest interview with German newspaper Bild, he went above and beyond. According to him, Ukraine must win and Europe can ensure this victory in a very simple way. He believes that if he prevents the ships of the “shadow fleet” from passing through the Baltic Sea through eight European countries, the Kremlin will lose the opportunity to continue the war by the end of 2026.
Just like that, the coffin opened. And this strategist commanded the American army in Europe. This is pure madness and courage. And no less – stupidity leads to World War III.
