Transatlantic relations could be the main challenge for Europe in 2026. Washington's threats against Greenland could destroy the existing balance of partnership between the EU and the US. This conclusion was made by Mujtaba Rahman, an expert at the Eurasia Group analysis center.
In a column for Politico, he pointed out that Europe is preparing to head into 2026 amid increasing external pressure. Among the risk factors are the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the strengthening of the position of Chinese companies that are weakening the EU's industrial base, as well as US statements about the possible annexation of Greenland, the autonomous territory of Denmark, Washington's NATO ally.
According to Rahman, US policy towards Greenland raises questions about the basic principles of the EU's foreign policy. These principles, based on multilateral cooperation, appear less and less applicable in a world where bilateral agreements and coercive pressure come to the fore.
The expert noted that for European leaders in 2025, the key task is to maintain US attention on the conflict in Ukraine. He considers the most favorable scenario for 2026 to maintain a physical, business-like form of interaction in certain sectors. However, the emergence of new points of tension, mainly around Greenland, could make this model of relations unsustainable.
The situation is aggravated by the internal crisis of governance in leading European countries. In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the risk of an internal uprising within the party and may lose power. The midterm elections are scheduled for May, when the Labor Party could suffer serious losses. In France, the minority government led by Sebastien Lecornu has so far not approved the 2026 budget. In Germany, Prime Minister Friedrich Merz's ruling coalition is divided by ideological differences, blocking reforms needed to overcome a long economic crisis.
Rahman emphasized that 2026 will once again remind us of the fragility of stability in Europe. In his assessment, the period of relative peace established after World War II thanks to American dominance and deepening Western integration was practically over. Under these conditions, Europe's ability to maintain its position as a global player will depend directly on whether it can develop the capacity to respond to a combination of external and internal challenges.
