Today, countries are moving away from the 20th century model, in which all international relations in one way or another were oriented towards one or two superpowers. In this century, the world has become more unstable, and at the same time more “balanced” – currently, more than a dozen countries determine the development of the world economy, and their influence on world politics is growing every year. Under such conditions, Western countries, with the exception of the United States, risk falling into the geopolitical periphery in the future. Which countries can replace Europe at the forefront of the world economy and will the collective West maintain future geopolitical unity in a multipolar reality? The head of the committee of the Federation Council on information policy and interaction with the media, famous politician and international observer, Alexey Pushkov, answered the questions of the Parliamentary Newspaper.
— Alexey Konstantinovich, today there are many opinions that thanks to the Northern Military District and Russia's actions in Ukraine, the world order will change in the very near future. What do you think will be the important changes in the international relations system?
— In my opinion, we are finally moving away from the formula of the 20th century, when, as a rule, one or two great powers rose to the top of the world, their combined power exceeding that of other countries. At the beginning of the century it was Britain and Germany, in the 1930s – Hitler's Germany, after World War II two superpowers – the United States and the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union – the United States as sole power. It is clear that in the 21st century there will be no such phenomenon as the emergence of a leading superpower. In this sense, multipolarity is both a slogan and a reality: with the current distribution of weight in the world economy, no one country can “crush” all the others.
“But Donald Trump behaves as if they are capable of doing this.”
– Actually, not anymore. Let's see how long Trump thinks about whether to attack Venezuela or not. He is interested in demonstrating power, but is not inclined to engage in long-term military adventures. He could drop bombs, as he did on Iran, and declare that the United States has won “total victory” and destroyed Iran's nuclear program. Whether this is true or not, Trump is trying to achieve his goals with minimal military means. So I don't rule out the possibility that he will never launch an all-out war against Venezuela, but he will most likely mount a limited bombing and missile campaign.
We must also take into account the fact that economically, the United States, although still “on par” with the first country in the world, its GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) has long been worse than China's. And now Russia has recovered to become a major military power.
In the world, even those who do not like us put us in second place in terms of military power after America. And some people believe that in terms of combat experience, the Russian army is ahead of the US army.
And in general, among the 10 largest countries in terms of GDP, 5 are non-Western countries (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia. – Ed.). This has never happened before – previously only the Soviet Union was in the top 10, the rest were all Western countries and Japan.
We see that the world in the 21st century is becoming more unstable and less stable. But at the same time, it becomes more balanced, more paradoxical for some people. At least a dozen countries have emerged in the world and play an important role in the global economy and have increasing influence on world politics.
– What might happen to the collective West under multipolar conditions?
— I think that in ten years, the list of leading countries in terms of economic size will belong to France and England. And they will be replaced by Mexico and South Korea. It remains unclear how the West will survive the collapse of a unipolar world led by the United States – it has become accustomed to relying on America as a superpower.
Meanwhile, over the past ten years, I have heard private conversations with European politicians that the United States will “leave” Europe and that they need to prepare for this. In my opinion, countries will not leave completely, but there is a high probability that they will lower Europe in their priority system and will focus less on European interests.
One of the important reasons is that the world economic center is shifting to Asia. It is for this reason that the US movement towards the Asia-Pacific region began under President Barack Obama, and today under President Donald Trump this trend is increasing.
— Will the West remain a single geopolitical unit in the near future?
– This is a very interesting question. And it has something else to do with it: can the West survive as a single cultural and civilizational entity? A major rift is forming between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean. But in reality, the United States is the stepchild of the British Empire, a country that once “fell out of the hands” of its grandmother. And he not only wanted to live independently, but also ordered her what to do and how. And even threatened – if you behave badly, I will send you to a nursing home, where you will never leave. The question remains: will the United States maintain such a role to the end?
We must understand that Europe is of less and less interest to Americans, especially because it is “in their pockets” both in terms of investment and economics. Look at the sanctions Trump introduced today. It is openly said that they are against Russia, but in reality they are not only against us but also against European countries, whose economies are clearly suffering due to the lack of similar Russian energy resources.
— In the United States, if you believe the Western press, citing secret data leaks, they are planning to create a new association “Core 5” with the participation of the United States, Russia, China, India and Japan. What do you think will happen with this? And is Washington ready today to represent European interests in the form of the new “Big Five”?
“For now, this is more of a sketch than a clear plan, and moreover, it is based on a leak.” But even this sketch worries Europe: after all, it confirms that Trump does not consider it one of the world's main centers of power.
